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美国通胀回归美联储仍拒绝加息-C观点:史永清

美国通胀回归,美联储仍拒绝加息

美国最新公布的消费者物价指数同比上涨5.3%,虽然没有进一步恶化,但似乎短期内不会下降。 美联储早先的论点是,美国的通胀是暂时的,不会持续太久。 这个预测似乎并不容易实现。

美联储最初的通胀目标是 2%。 美国目前的通货膨胀已经大大偏离了这个目标。 美联储应该开始实施加息是理所当然的,但美联储仍在安抚市场,称目前的通胀只是暂时的。 是的,以后还会跌。 但不清楚为什么它会在以后退缩。

在我看来,美国通胀下降的可能性很小。 过去美国没有通货膨胀是因为中国廉价商品源源不断地供应,但由于美国对出口到美国的中国商品加征关税,中国减少了对美国市场的依赖。 目前,中国最大的贸易伙伴是东盟,其次是欧盟,其次是美国。 我认为如果有其他选择,中国的出口不会轻易降价来争夺高关税的美国市场。 因此,大部分美国关税必须由美国消费者自己承担。 因此,美国会先考虑削减关税,然后再考虑加息。

美国原本以为可以买其他发展中国家的产品,而不是买中国产品,但全球疫情没有缓和迹象,其他国家的大部分生产也无法恢复正常。 此外,运输受阻,运费高。 增加对其他发展中国家的进口不能满足美国的正常需求。 此外,美国政府在疫情发生后发放了很多救助资金,让美国人民可以付出更高的代价。 所以如果美国真的想抑制通胀,除了加息之外,还可以依靠停止发放救灾补贴。

但是,美国的疫情并没有缓和的迹象。 如果政府停止对赈灾的现金补贴,人们的生活就会受到困扰,并会引发社会隐性矛盾。 在这种情况下,即使美国出现通货膨胀,美国政府仍然需要维持一定程度的现金救济。

至于美联储,对通胀不屑一顾,也不敢加息,以免对经济造成负面影响。 因为美国的经济提振主要来自对高流动性的兴奋,一旦利率上升,经济就不能兴奋。 美联储的工作除了抑制通胀,还要负责保就业。 从目前的情况来看,美联储将选择忍受高通胀,不会轻易加息。

目前,美国经济增速仍可维持在6.5%,应能支撑5.3%的通胀。 但是,如果美国经济反弹结束,恢复到一年2%至3%的正常增长水平,那么5.3%的通胀率就显得不合理了。

经济增长缺乏通胀率,将对美元的购买力产生怀疑,美元可能因此走弱。 届时,美联储将发现自己陷入另一个困境。 不加息不仅不会降低通胀,还会损害美元的国际地位。 但是,如果为了抑制通胀而根据需要提高利率,美国经济将承受不起,甚至股市和债市可能会一起崩溃。 无论美联储主席是谁,都不会有好的策略。

资料来源:https://www.am730.com.hk/column/news/ 美国通胀正在卷土重来; 美联储仍拒绝加息 -285016

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';$(columncat).appendTo('.columnSubcat');}} function statusChangeCallback(response){console.log('statusChangeCallback');console.log(response);if(response.status==='connected'){FB.getLoginStatus(function(response){console.log(response.authResponse.accessToken);});}else if(response.status==='not_authorized'){document.getElementById('status').innerHTML='Please log '+'into this app.';}else{document.getElementById('status').innerHTML='Please log '+'into Facebook.';}} function checkLoginState(){FB.getLoginStatus(function(response){statusChangeCallback(response);});} window.fbAsyncInit=function(){FB.init({appId:'575343882608106',cookie:true,xfbml:true,version:'v2.3'});FB.getLoginStatus(function(response){});};(function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];if(d.getElementById(id))return;js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src="//connect.facebook.net/zh_HK/sdk.js";fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}(document,'script','facebook-jssdk'));function testAPI(){console.log('Welcome! Fetching your information.... ');FB.api('/me',function(response){console.log('Successful login for: '+response.name);document.getElementById('status').innerHTML='Thanks for logging in, '+response.name+'!';});} $(document).on('click','.acc-logout',function(e){e.preventDefault();var url="https://www.am730.com.hk/member/memberWebLogout/";var data="V=1.0";$.ajax({url:url,method:"POST",data:data,xhrFields:{withCredentials:true}}).done(function(result){var result=JSON.parse(result);if(result.RESULT==1){window.location.href="//www.am730.com.hk/";try{if(typeof(Storage)!=="undefined"){sessionStorage.clear();}else{console.log("Your browser does not support web storage.")}}catch(e){console.log(e.message+"||acc logout");}}else{console.log(result) console.log(result.RESULT)}})})}) $(window).load(function(){var scriptAdv='

'; advRelocate (scriptAdv, '.top_ads_md_lg', '.top_ads_xs_sm', googletag); var scriptAdv = ''; advRelocate (scriptAdv, '.top_ads_md_lg', '.top_ads_xs_sm', googledvR); 变种; 脚本高级,'。 pop_ads_md_lg ','。 pop_ads_xs_sm ', googletag); var scriptAdv = ''; advRelocate (scriptAdv, '.news_ads_md_lg', '.news_ads_xs_sm', googletag);}) 函数 advRelocate (content, divsm)) {var scriptAdv = content; var div_1 = div_md_lg; var div_2 = div_xs_sm; var resizeTimer; scriptAdv = $ ('

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